BDS卫星差分码偏差稳定性分析及其短期预报

利用MGEX(multi-GNSS experiment)发布的BDS卫星差分码偏差(differential code bias, DCB)产品，比较分析不同太阳活动水平下BDS卫星DCB产品的稳定性变化特性，并采用差分自回归移动平均(auto-regressive integrated moving average, ARIMA)时间序列预测模型，实现不同太阳活动水平下BDS卫星DCB的短期预报。结果表明，在太阳活动高年，BDS卫星DCB日解值稳定度、月稳定性均明显低于太阳活动低年，且不同卫星星座类型的BDS卫星DCB稳定性也存在差异；ARIMA时间序列预报结果与MGEX发布值符合程度较好，优于多项式拟合法预测结果。     

航空重力垂直梯度探测潜艇方法研究

航空重力梯度测量属于被动探测,抗干扰能力强,如果能和其他探潜手段相配合将极大地提高航空搜潜的效率。针对航空重力梯度测量是否能够用于探测潜艇的问题,依据俄亥俄级弹道导弹核潜艇的结构特点,建立了适用于重力梯度计算的潜艇模型,分别给出了潜艇外壳、内部质量亏损产生的重力垂直梯度的计算方法,并对不同精度重力梯度仪可探测的潜艇重力垂直梯度值进行了计算,从航空反潜的角度对探测潜艇效果进行了分析。经计算表明,如航空重力梯度仪精度达到10~(-2) E,将具备一定的实际探潜效能;如精度达到10~(-4) E,反潜机搜索宽度可与现有航空磁性探潜相当。     

The Influence of Two Kinds of El Niño Events on the Strong Tropical Cyclone Generation and Strength in the Pacific Ocean

This paper focuses on the effects of two types of El Niño events on tropical cyclone activity. We classified El Niño events from 1961 to 2015 according to their sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies into an eastern type and a central type. Then we selected strong tropical cyclones to statistically analyze the tropical cyclone characteristics during different events and their effects, as well as to study the possible mechanisms related to thermodynamic and dynamic factors. The tropical cyclone generation areas were found to be very similar during the two kinds of events. The average number of tropical cyclone in the eastern event is more than that in central event, and the hurricane in northeastern Pacific (HNP) has more energy than the typhoon in northwestern Pacific (TNP) in all cases. The seasonal distribution of the TNP high-incidence centers during central El Niño events is opposite to that of the HNP. The TNP accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) intensity is similar in the fall and summer, and the HNP ACE intensity in the summer is greater than that in the fall. The SSTs are consistent with the TNP and HNP movement trends. The Walker circulation intensity was strongly affected by the eastern events, but it quickly returned to its normal state, while the intensity was slightly reduced in the central events, and it slowly returned to its normal state. The vertical velocity distributions in the Pacific are different at different stages of both events, and the distributions of vertical velocity anomalies for typhoons and hurricanes are consistent.     

新型珊瑚海水混凝土力学性能试验研究

为了解决全珊瑚海水混凝土(coral aggregate seawater concrete,简称CASC)的脆性问题,采用碱式硫酸镁水泥(basic magnesium sulfate cement,简称BMSC)为胶凝材料和剑麻纤维为增韧材料制备了一种新型全珊瑚海水混凝土(NCASC),系统测定了基本力学性能,并与普通硅酸盐水泥制备的CASC、碱式硫酸镁水泥砂石混凝土(basic magnesium sulfate cement concrete,简称BMSCC)、普通砂石混凝土(ordinary portland cement concrete,简称OPC)以及普通轻骨料混凝土(lightweight aggregate concrete,简称LAC)的力学性能进行对比。结果表明:立方体抗压强度(f_(cu),m)在15~35 MPa范围内的NCASC的轴心抗压强度(f_c,m)、劈裂抗拉强度(f_(sp),m)与f_(cu),m之间具有较显著的线性关系;对于f_(cu),m为15~35 MPa的混凝土,相同强度NCASC的f_c,m高于OPC、LAC及BMSCC,其f_c,m与f_(cu),m比值最大,大致在0.85~0.96之间,NCASC的f_(sp),m比OPC和LAC高,但比BMSCC低,且随着强度的提高,OPC与NCASC的f_(sp),m间的差距在增大,而LAC和BMSCC与NCASC的f_(sp),m间的差距在缩小;在强度等级C15~C55的范围中,NCASC和CASC的f_(sp),m、f_c,m与f_(cu),m之间的关系基本可以采用相同的线性回归方程来描述,利用这两个回归线性方程得到对应于标准强度等级的CASC和NCASC的f_(sp),m和f_c,m数据,为CASC力学性能研究与结构设计提供参考依据。     

两株南极枝孢霉属真菌Cladosporium sp.NJF4和NJF6的次级代谢产物研究

南极因其独特的自然环境成为潜在、重要的微生物资源库,是产生新型生物活性物质和先导化合物菌株的潜在种源地,南极微生物正在成为创新药物研究新的重要资源。虽然近年来对南极微生物次级代谢产物的研究逐渐增加,但与温带和热带微生物研究相比仍处于初级阶段。对从南极普里兹湾海洋沉积物中获得的两株枝孢霉属真菌Cladosporium sp. NJF4和NJF6进行次级代谢产物分离及结构鉴定,获得20个化合物。化合物结构类型包括甾醇(1)、倍半萜类(7—8)、生物碱类(9—14)、二酮哌嗪(2—5、15—17)、芳香酸(6、18—19)等,其中倍半萜类(7—8)为首次从枝孢霉属真菌中分离得到,以上研究将为丰富南极微生物次级代谢产物库奠定一定的研究基础。     

Influence of Stress on Void Ratios of Compacted Crushed Rock Masses in Coal Mine Gobs

The transfer and evolution of stress among rock blocks directly change the void ratios of crushed rock masses and affect the flow of methane in coal mine gobs. In this study, a Lagrange framework and a discrete element method, along with the soft-sphere model and EDEM numerical software, were used. The compaction processes of rock blocks with diameters of 0.6, 0.8, and 1.0 m were simulated with the degrees of compression set at 0%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, and 25%. This study examines the influence of stress on void ratios of compacted crushed rock masses in coal mine gobs. The results showed that stress was mainly transmitted downward through strong force chains. As the degree of compression increased, the strong force chains extended downward, which resulted in the stress at the upper rock mass to become significantly higher than that at the lower rock mass. It was determined that under different degrees of compression, the rock mass of coal mine gobs could be divided, from the bottom to the top, into a lower insufficient compression zone (ICZ) and an upper sufficient compression zone (SCZ). From bottom to top, the void ratios in the ICZ sharply decreased and those in the SCZ slowly decreased. Void ratios in the ICZ were 1.2–1.7 times higher than those in the SCZ.

     

南极半岛邻近海域夏季POC分布特征及其影响因素

海水中的颗粒有机碳(POC)与生物的生命过程、初级生产力关系密切,是海洋食物链中重要的物质基础和能量来源,因此POC的分布特征可以有效反映其生物地球化学环境。利用中国第33次南极考察期间(2016年12月至2017年1月)在南极半岛邻近海域采集的海水颗粒物样品,研究POC的空间分布特征及其影响因素。结果表明,斯科舍海0—200 m的POC浓度范围为7.44—193.52μg·L~(-1),平均浓度为(48.84±35.09)μg·L~(-1);南斯科舍海岭0—200 m的POC浓度范围为9.13—62.17μg·L~(-1),平均浓度为(29.76±14.12)μg·L~(-1);鲍威尔海盆0—200 m的POC浓度范围为5.87—270.72μg·L~(-1),平均浓度为(48.57±38.92)μg·L~(-1)。表层POC高值出现在斯科舍海区和鲍威尔海盆区,而低值出现在海岭区,与叶绿素a(Chla)的变化趋势一致,与营养盐的变化趋势相反。垂向分布上,各个区域POC平均浓度随深度的增加而减少,鲍威尔海盆和斯科舍海POC最高值都出现在25 m层。分析结果表明光合浮游植物是研究海域POC的主要来源, POC的主要影响因素为温度、水团混合以及海冰环境。斯科舍海与鲍威尔海盆整体非生命POC占比高,可能是由于高磷虾生物量、海冰碎屑以及陆源输入的干扰;南斯科舍海岭整体非生命POC占比低。     

全球粮食安全格局的时空演化

Food security is the primary prerequisite for achieving other Millennium Development Goals(MDGs).Given that the MDG of“halving the proportion of hungers by 2015”was not realized as scheduled,it will be more pressing and challenging to reach the goal of zero hunger by 2030.So there is high urgency to find the pattern and mechanism of global food security from the perspective of spatio-temporal evolution.In this paper,based on the analysis of database by using a multi-index evaluation method and radar map area model,the global food security level for 172 countries from 2000 to 2014 were assessed;and then spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted to depict the spatial patterns and changing characteristics of global food security;then,multi-nonlinear regression methods were employed to identify the factors affecting the food security patterns.The results show:1)The global food security pattern can be summarized as“high-high aggregation,low-low aggregation”.The most secure countries are mainly distributed in Western Europe,North America,Oceania and parts of East Asia.The least secure countries are mainly distributed in sub-Saharan Africa,South Asia and West Asia,and parts of Southeast Asia.2)Europe and sub-Saharan Africa are hot and cold spots of the global food security pattern respectively,while in non-aggregation areas,Haiti,North Korea,Tajikistan and Afghanistan have long-historical food insecurity problems.3)The pattern of global food security is generally stable,but the internal fluctuations in the extremely insecure groups were significant.The countries with the highest food insecurity are also the countries with the most fluctuated levels of food security.4)The annual average temperature,per capita GDP,proportion of people accessible to clean water,political stability and non-violence levels are the main factors influencing the global food security pattern.Research shows that the status of global food security has improved since the year 2000,yet there are still many challenges such as unstable global food security and acute regional food security issues.It will be difficult to understand these differences from a single factor,especially the annual average temperature and annual precipitation.The abnormal performance of the above factors indicates that appropriate natural conditions alone do not absolutely guarantee food security,while the levels of agricultural development,the purchasing power of residents,regional accessibility,as well as political and economic stability have more direct influence.     

黄渤海带鱼(Trichiurus lepturus)渔业生物学参考点估计研究

It is important to find a reliable method to estimate maximum sustainable yield(MSY) or total allowable catch(TAC) for fishery management, especially when the data availability is limited which is a case in China. A recently developed method(CMSY) is a data-poor method, which requires only catch data, resilience and exploitation history at the first and final years of the catch data. CMSY was used in this study to estimate the biological reference points for Largehead hairtail(Trichiurus lepturus, Temminck and Schlegel) in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, based on the fishery data from China Fishery Statistical Year Books during 1986 to 2012. Additionally,Bayesian state-space Schaefer surplus production model(BSM) and the classical surplus production models(Schaefer and Fox) performed by software CEDA and ASPIC, were also projected in this study to compare with the performance of CMSY. The estimated MSYs from all models are about 19.7×104–27.0×104 t, while CMSY and BSM yielded more reasonable population parameter estimates(the intrinsic population growth rate and the carrying capacity). The biological reference points of B/BMSY smaller than 1.0, while F/FMSY higher than 1.0 revealed an over-exploitation of the fishery, indicating that more conservative management strategies are required for Largehead hairtail fishery.